(high confidence). {4.4.2, Box 4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, SPM B3}, C.3.3 Responses to sea level rise and associated risk reduction present society with profound governance challenges, resulting from the uncertainty about the magnitude and rate of future sea level rise, vexing trade-offs between societal goals (e.g., safety, conservation, economic development, intra- and inter-generational equity), limited resources, and conflicting interests and values among diverse stakeholders (high confidence). RCP2.6 represents a low greenhouse gas emissions, high mitigation future, that in CMIP5 simulations gives a two in three chance of limiting global warming to below 2°C by 210015. The partners include: State Climate Offices, Regional Climate Centers, and the National Centers for Environmental Information. {Box 4.3, 5.4, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Annex I: Glossary}, C.2.5 Ocean renewable energy can support climate change mitigation, and can comprise energy extraction from offshore winds, tides, waves, thermal and salinity gradient and algal biofuels. Together with warming, these changes have increased locally the number of species in high mountains, as lower-elevation species migrate upslope (very high confidence). The projected responses of the ocean and cryosphere to past and current human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and ongoing global warming include climate feedbacks, changes over decades to millennia that cannot be avoided, thresholds of abrupt change, and irreversibility. Prerequisites: N/A Corequisites: N/A. Chapter Text. Depending on local geomorphology and sediment supply, marshes and mangroves can grow vertically at rates equal to or greater than current mean sea level rise (high confidence). Reaching adaptation limits (e.g., biophysical, geographical, financial, technical, social, political, and institutional) depends on the emissions scenario and context-specific risk tolerance, and is projected to expand to more areas beyond 2100, due to the long-term commitment of sea level rise (, to become uninhabitable due to climate-related ocean and cryosphere change (, ), but habitability thresholds remain extremely difficult to assess. Confidence in key findings is reported using IPCC calibrated language, and the underlying scientific basis for each key finding is indicated by references to sections of the underlying report.Â, All people on Earth depend directly or indirectly on the ocean and cryosphere. Retrofitting and redesigning infrastructure has the potential to halve the costs arising from permafrost thaw and related climate-change impacts by 2100 (medium confidence). By 2100, the top 2000 m of the ocean are projected to take up 5–7 times more heat under RCP8.5 (or 2–4 times more under RCP2.6) than the observed accumulated ocean heat uptake since 1970 (, ). Altered interactions between species have caused cascading impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning (medium confidence). Shifts in species distributions and abundance has challenged international and national ocean and fisheries governance, including in the Arctic, North Atlantic and Pacific, in terms of regulating fishing to secure ecosystem integrity and sharing of resources between fishing entities (high confidence). Creator Chapter 31: The Thirty-First Day After Becoming God February 2, 2021; Vampire Omega Chapter 2: Take Them Like This February 2, 2021; Kantoku, Neko Na Ore wa Dame Desu Ka February 2, 2021; Senpai, Danjite Koidewa! {Box 5.2, Figure SPM.3}, Figure SPM.3 | Projected changes, impacts and risks for ocean regions and ecosystems. As part of the assessment, literature was compiled and data extracted into a summary table. These challenges can be eased using locally appropriate combinations of decision analysis, land-use planning, public participation, diverse knowledge systems and conflict resolution approaches that are adjusted over time as circumstances change (high confidence). Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely. These changes may be the onset of an irreversible,  ice sheet instability. {2.2, 2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2, 3.3, 3.4, Figure SPM.1, SPM Box SPM.1}, B.1.1 Projected glacier mass reductions between 2015 and 2100 (excluding the ice sheets) range from 18 ± 7% (likely range) for RCP2.6 to 36 ± 11% (likely range) for RCP8.5, corresponding to a sea level contribution of 94 ± 25 mm (likely range) sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, and 200 ± 44 mm (likely range) for RCP8.5 (medium confidence). Current engineered risk reduction approaches are projected to be less effective as hazards change in character (medium confidence). {1.1, 1.5, 1.8.3, 2.3.1, 2.3.2, 2.4, Figure 2.7, 2.5, 3.5.2, 3.5.4, 4.4, 5.2.2, Box 5.3, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 6.4.3, 6.5.3, 6.8, 6.9, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}, C.4.1 In light of observed and projected changes in the ocean and cryosphere, many nations will face challenges to adapt, even with ambitious mitigation (very high confidence). Vulnerability and risks are highest where and when temperature and oxygen conditions both reach values outside species’ tolerance ranges (medium confidence). {3.3.1, Figures SPM.1, SPM.2, SPM A1.1}, Acceleration of ice flow and retreat in Antarctica, which has the potential to lead to sea level rise of several metres within a few centuries, is observed in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica and in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica (, ). Warming-induced species range expansions have led to altered ecosystem structure and functioning such as in the North Atlantic, Northeast Pacific and Arctic (, ). By 2100, projected near-surface (within 3–4 m) permafrost area shows a decrease of 24 ± 16% (likely range) for RCP2.6 and 69 ± 20% (likely range) for RCP8.5. Writers like Joyce are then able to exploit the multifaceted, contrasting feelings associated with rain in creative ways. Together, these actions also have multiple other benefits, such as providing storm protection, improving water quality, and benefiting biodiversity and fisheries (high confidence). The projected redistribution of resources and abundance increases the risk of conflicts among fisheries, authorities or communities (, ). Integrated water management (medium confidence) and ecosystem-based adaptation (high confidence) approaches lower climate risks locally and provide multiple societal benefits. Coastal tidal amplitudes and patterns are projected to change due to sea level rise and coastal adaptation measures (, Projected changes in waves arising from changes in weather patterns, and changes in tides due to sea level rise, can locally enhance or ameliorate coastal hazards (, The average intensity of tropical cyclones, the proportion of Category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones and the associated average precipitation rates are projected to increase for a 2°C global temperature rise above any baseline period (, ). {4.3.2, 4.4.2, Box 4.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}, Some coastal accommodation measures, such as early warning systems and flood-proofing of buildings, are often both low cost and highly cost-efficient under current sea levels (, ). {2.3.3, 4.4.2, 5.3.7, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, Box 5.5, Figure SPM.3}, C.2.3 Strengthening precautionary approaches, such as rebuilding overexploited or depleted fisheries, and responsiveness of existing fisheries management strategies reduces negative climate change impacts on fisheries, with benefits for regional economies and livelihoods (medium confidence). {1.1, 2.1, 3.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure 2.1}Â, In addition to their role within the climate system, such as the uptake and redistribution of natural and anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO, ) and heat, as well as ecosystem support, services provided to people by the ocean and/or cryosphere include food and water supply, renewable energy, and benefits for health and well-being, cultural values, tourism, trade, and transport. Stakeholders with higher risk tolerance (e.g., those planning for investments that can be very easily adapted to unforeseen conditions) often prefer to use the, range of projections, while stakeholders with a lower risk tolerance (e.g., those deciding on critical infrastructure) also consider global and local mean sea level above the upper end of the, range (globally 1.1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100) and from methods characterised by lower confidence such as from expert elicitation. {2.3, 2.3.1, 3.4.3}, B.7.1 Disaster risks to human settlements and livelihood options in high mountain areas and the Arctic are expected to increase (medium confidence), due to future changes in hazards such as floods, fires, landslides, avalanches, unreliable ice and snow conditions, and increased exposure of people and infrastructure (high confidence). {5.2.2, Box 5.1, Figures SPM.1, SPM.3}, B.2.3 Continued carbon uptake by the ocean by 2100 is virtually certain to exacerbate ocean acidification. Changes in the seasonal activities, production and distribution of some Arctic zooplankton and a southward shift in the distribution of the Antarctic krill population in the South Atlantic are associated with climate-linked environmental changes (medium confidence). Such impacts compound any risks from other shifts in diets and food systems caused by social and economic changes and climate change over land (medium confidence). Global-scale glacier mass loss, permafrost thaw, and decline in snow cover and Arctic sea ice extent are projected to continue in the near-term (2031–2050) due to surface air temperature increases (high confidence), with unavoidable consequences for river runoff and local hazards (high confidence). They're like having in-class notes for every discussion!”, “This is absolutely THE best teacher resource I have ever purchased. Its share increased to 45–62% between 2005 and 2017 (, ). For example, coral reef restoration options may be ineffective if global warming exceeds 1.5°C, because corals are already at high risk (, ) at current levels of warming. The darker the circle, the earlier this transition is expected. Coastal communities face challenging choices in crafting context-specific and integrated responses to sea level rise that balance costs, benefits and trade-offs of available options and that can be adjusted over time (high confidence). The assessment has been conducted for each sea level rise and response scenario, as indicated by the burning embers in the figure; in-between risk levels are interpolated. {4.3.2, 4.3.3}, A.9.2 Coastal protection through hard measures, such as dikes, seawalls, and surge barriers, is widespread in many coastal cities and deltas. Although attribution is currently not possible, CMIP5 model simulations of the period 1850–2015, on average, exhibit a weakening AMOC when driven by anthropogenic forcing. 4 Snow Above! Sustained long-term monitoring, sharing of data, information and knowledge and improved context-specific forecasts, including early warning systems to predict more extreme El Niño/La Niña events, tropical cyclones, and marine heatwaves, help to manage negative impacts from ocean changes such as losses in fisheries, and adverse impacts on human health, food security, agriculture, coral reefs, aquaculture, wildfire, tourism, conservation, drought and flood (, ). Brush up February 2, 2021; Mary Sue Chapter … {3.2.4, 3.5.3, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, Figure SPM.2}, A.8.2 Harmful algal blooms display range expansion and increased frequency in coastal areas since the 1980s in response to both climatic and non-climatic drivers such as increased riverine nutrients run-off (high confidence). The observed trends in harmful algal blooms are attributed partly to the effects of ocean warming, marine heatwaves, oxygen loss, eutrophication and pollution (high confidence). The assessment of risk transitions is described in Chapter 5 Sections 5.2, 5.3, 5.2.5 and 5.3.7 and Supplementary Materials SM5.3, Table SM5.6, Table SM5.8 and other parts of the underlying report. September sea ice reductions are, 12.8 ± 2.3% per decade. Risks of severe impacts on biodiversity, structure and function of coastal ecosystems are projected to be higher for elevated temperatures under high compared to low emissions scenarios in the 21st century and beyond. In press. For a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), projections of global sea level rise by 2100 are greater than in AR5 due to a larger contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (medium confidence). But to make it through the Game of Thrones alive, one must be ready to navigate through dangerous waters. The ocean and cryosphere support unique habitats, and are interconnected with other components of the climate system through global exchange of water, energy and carbon. Teachers and parents! {4.2.3, 6.3, Figures SPM.4, SPM.5}, B.3.5 Significant wave heights (the average height from trough to crest of the highest one-third of waves) are projected to increase across the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific (high confidence) and Baltic Sea (medium confidence) and decrease over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea under RCP8.5 (high confidence). In polar regions, ice associated marine mammals and seabirds have experienced habitat contraction linked to sea ice changes (high confidence) and impacts on foraging success due to climate impacts on prey distributions (medium confidence). Realising this potential depends on transformative change. "Snow country or Rather Spring Country" naruto says. These impacts are projected to be more pronounced in more vulnerable eutrophic and shallow estuaries with low tidal range in temperate and high latitude regions (medium confidence). Open ocean surface pH is projected to decrease by around 0.3 pH units by 2081–2100, relative to 2006–2015, under RCP8.5 (, ). {Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, 4.4.3, 4.4.4, 6.9}, Despite the large uncertainties about the magnitude and rate of post 2050 sea level rise, many coastal decisions with time horizons of decades to over a century are being made now (e.g., critical infrastructure, coastal protection works, city planning) and can be improved by taking relative sea level rise into account, favouring flexible responses (i.e., those that can be adapted over time) supported by monitoring systems for early warning signals, periodically adjusting decisions (i.e., adaptive decision making), using robust decision-making approaches, expert judgement, scenario-building, and multiple knowledge systems (, ). There is emerging evidence for an increase in annual global proportion of Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones in recent decades (low confidence). {5.3, 5.3.5, 5.3.6, 5.3.7, 6.4.2, Figure SPM.3}, B.6.2 Seagrass meadows and saltmarshes and associated carbon stores are at moderate risk at 1.5°C global warming and increase with further warming (medium confidence). Ocean acidification (medium confidence), oxygen loss (medium confidence) and reduced sea ice extent (medium confidence) as well as non-climatic human activities (medium confidence) have the potential to exacerbate these warming-induced ecosystem impacts. Projected ecosystem responses include losses of species habitat and diversity, and degradation of ecosystem functions. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty”; “Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems”. The Role of Education and Local Knowledge in Adapting to Climate Change. For Greenland, mass loss doubled over the same period (likely, medium confidence). The impacts on ecosystem services have negative consequences for health and well-being (medium confidence), and for Indigenous peoples and local communities dependent on fisheries (high confidence). The capacity of governance systems in polar and ocean regions to respond to climate change impacts has strengthened recently, but this development is not sufficiently rapid or robust to adequately address the scale of increasing projected risks (high confidence). However, there is only limited evidence of resulting impacts on operations and energy production. {Table SPM.1}. {1.1, 1.4–1.7, Cross-Chapter Boxes 1–3 in Chapter 1, 2.3.1, 2.4, Box 3.2, Figure 3.4, Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 3, 3.4.3, 4.2.2, 4.2.3, 4.3.4, 4.4.2, 4.4.3, 4.4.6, 5.4.2, 5.5.3, 6.9.2, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}, C.4.2 Intensifying cooperation and coordination among governing authorities across scales, jurisdictions, sectors, policy domains and planning horizons can enable effective responses to changes in the ocean, cryosphere and to sea level rise (high confidence). Rising mean sea levels will contribute to higher extreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones (very high confidence). Coastal hazards will be exacerbated by an increase in the average intensity, magnitude of storm surge and precipitation rates of tropical cyclones. In a high emissions scenario, many ocean- and cryosphere-dependent communities are projected to face adaptation limits (e.g. Nearly 50% of coastal wetlands have been lost over the last 100 years, as a result of the combined effects of localised human pressures, sea level rise, warming and extreme climate events (high confidence). These impacts are projected to be more pronounced in more vulnerable eutrophic and shallow estuaries with low tidal range in temperate and high latitude regions (, ). Such actions are most successful when they are community-supported, are science-based whilst also using local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge, have long-term support that includes the reduction or removal of non-climatic stressors, and under the lowest levels of warming (high confidence). {4.2.3, Figures SPM.1, SPM.5}, ). The deep ocean below 2000 m has warmed since 1992 (, ), especially in the Southern Ocean. These changes have contributed to changing the seasonal activities, abundance and distribution of ecologically, culturally, and economically important plant and animal species, ecological disturbances, and ecosystem functioning. The year when the historical centennial event becomes an annual event in the mid-latitudes occurs soonest in RCP8.5, next in RCP4.5 and latest in RCP2.6. TBC. A.7. {3.2.1, 5.2.2, Box 5.1, Figures SPM.1, SPM.2}, Datasets spanning 1970–2010 show that t, range of 0.5–3.3% over the upper 1000 m, alongside a, expansion of the volume of oxygen minimum zones by 3–8% (, xygen loss is primarily due to increasing ocean stratification, changing ventilation and biogeochemistry (, Observations, both in situ (2004–2017) and based on sea surface temperature reconstructions, indicate that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ). Coastal advance, which refers to the creation of new land by building seawards (e.g., land reclamation), has a long history in most areas where there are dense coastal populations and a shortage of land. Regional differences, within ±30% of the global mean sea level rise, result from land ice loss and variations in ocean warming and circulation. {SR1.5, 5.3.4, 5.3.5, 6.4.2, Figure SPM.2}. Methane contributes a small fraction of the total additional carbon release but is significant because of its higher warming potential. How much was the spring compressed initially? The cryosphere is defined in this report (Annex I: Glossary) as the components of the Earth System at and below the land and ocean surface that are frozen, including snow cover, glaciers, ice sheets, ice shelves, icebergs, sea ice, lake ice, river ice, permafrost, and seasonally frozen ground. We'll make guides for February's winners by March 31st—guaranteed. Such planned relocation can be socially, culturally, financially and politically constrained (very high confidence). Climate models project increases in the frequency of marine heatwaves by 2081–2100, relative to 1850–1900, by approximately 50 times under RCP8.5 and 20 times under RCP2.6 (medium confidence). In many regions, declines in the abundance of fish and shellfish stocks due to direct and indirect effects of global warming and biogeochemical changes have already contributed to reduced fisheries catches (, ). {5.5.1}. White circles (33% of locations under RCP2.6 and 10% under RCP8.5) indicate that HCEs are not expected to recur once per year before 2100. {3.4.3, 5.4.2, Box 5.3}, B.8.4 Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and their services put key cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods at risk (medium confidence), including through shifts in the distribution or abundance of harvested species and diminished access to fishing or hunting areas. Climate models project increases in the frequency of marine heatwaves by 2081–2100, relative to 1850–1900, by approximately 50 times under RCP8.5 and 20 times under RCP2.6 (, ). {2.1} Projections for 2050 give the range of population in these regions across all five of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. {4.4.2, 4.4.3, 4.4.4, 6.9.1, Cross-Chapter Box 9, Figure SPM.5}, C.3.1. In response to warming, distribution ranges of seagrass meadows and kelp forests are expanding at high latitudes and contracting at low latitudes since the late 1970s (high confidence), and in some areas episodic losses occur following heatwaves (medium confidence). There are greater increases projected under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6 from around mid-century to 2100 (, in changes in the future frequency of tropical cyclones at the global scale. In nearly all high mountain areas, the depth, extent and duration of snow cover have declined over recent decades, especially at lower elevation (, Permafrost temperatures have increased to record high levels (1980s-present) (, ) including the recent increase by 0.29°C ± 0.12°C from 2007 to 2016 averaged across polar and high-mountain regions globally. The ocean and cryosphere support unique habitats, and are interconnected with other components of the climate system through global exchange of water, energy and carbon. Sometimes the external landscape coheres with the inner thoughts and feelings of characters in a work of literature, and sometimes it is a marked contrast; both techniques create a strong poetic effect. The increasing frequency of high water levels can have severe impacts in many locations depending on exposure (high confidence). Nearly 50% of coastal wetlands have been lost over the last 100 years, as a result of the combined effects of localised human pressures, sea level rise, warming and extreme climate events (, ). Promotion of climate literacy and drawing on local, Indigenous and scientific knowledge systems enables public awareness, understanding and social learning about locality-specific risk and response potential (high confidence). Sea level changes with likely ranges for (m) Global mean sea level change. This Technical Summary of the IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) consists of the Executive Summaries of all chapters (1-6) of the Special Report, the Executive Summary from the Integrative Cross-Chapter Box on low-lying islands and coasts, and supporting figures drawn from the chapters and the Summary for Policymakers. (a) Schematic illustration of extreme sea level events and their average recurrence in the recent past (1986–2005) and the future. 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